Regional turmoil: On the West Asia situation

West Asia needs a new security equilibrium with the Palestine issue at the centre

The war on Gaza is no longer about Israel and Hamas. Israel has carried out targeted (directed at a particular group or activity) strikes in Lebanon and Syria, killing Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranian commanders. From southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is exchanging fire with Israeli troops. Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq have attacked U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq. The Houthis, the Iran-backed rebels (a person who is opposed to the political system in their country and tries to change it using force) of Yemen, have turned the Red Sea into a battlefield. The U.S.’s air strikes in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, seek to retaliate (to hurt someone or do something harmful to someone because they have done or said something harmful to you) against Shia militias. As chaos and instability (uncertainty caused by the possibility of a sudden change in the present situation) spread, Sunni Islamist militants attacked Iran, killing at least 100 people. In the latest escalation (a situation in which something becomes greater or more serious), Iran claims to have destroyed an Israeli intelligence outpost in Iraq’s Kurdistan and training camps of Sunni Islamists in Syria and Pakistan, in air strikes. This is now a classic case of regional anarchy (a situation in which there is no organization and control, especially in society, because there is no effective government) where countries are taking unilateral (involving only one group or country) military measures to address their perceived security challenges, throwing international laws and the idea of sovereignty (the power of a country to control its own government), the bedrock of the international system, to the wind, thereby risking a wider all-out war.

Just weeks before the October 7 attack, Jake Sullivan, the U.S. National Security Adviser, had said “the Middle East is quieter today than it has been in two decades”. The Abraham Accords were on a strong footing, and Saudi Arabia and Israel were moving closer towards normalisation (ordinary or usual; the same as would be expected). Iraq had become quieter; Gulf Arabs and Iran had reached a rapprochement; and a ceasefire was holding in Yemen. Most of these changes, however, ignored the oldest crisis in the region — Israel’s continuing occupation of the Palestinian territories. The October 7 Hamas attack and Israel’s subsequent vengeful (expressing a strong wish to punish someone who has harmed you or your family or friends) offensive in Gaza have not only brought Palestine back to the centre of West Asia but also lit fires, triggering (causing a strong emotional reaction of fear or worry because someone is made to remember something bad that has happened in the past) perhaps the deepest security crisis in the region since 1967. The involvement of non-state actors and the absence of an off ramp complicate (to make something more difficult to deal with, do, or understand) matters. After 100 days of war with Hamas, Israel has achieved little in Gaza. The Houthis, a militia that survived seven years of Saudi bombing, are unlikely to be deterred by America’s strikes. Even though Iran wants to showcase strength and boldness, it cannot mask its inherent weakness, which also makes it unpredictable (tending to change suddenly and without reason or warning, and therefore not able to be depended on). The old order, anchored by America’s domineering (trying to control other people without thinking about their feelings) regional presence, is in tatters. What West Asia needs is a new security equilibrium. There has to be an immediate ceasefire (an agreement, usually between two armies, to stop fighting in order to allow discussions about peace) in Gaza, and peace between Israel and Palestinians could be used as a springboard for further talks aimed at regional security between the main stakeholders — Israel, Arab nations, Iran, the U.S. and their respective allies (a country that has agreed officially to give help and support to another one, especially during a war) and proxies (authority given to a person to act for someone else, such as by voting for them in an election, or the person who this authority is given to).

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