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India’s factory output growth slowed to 4.9% in March from a downgraded 5.6% uptick in February, despite benevolent base effects from the previous year when the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had shrunk 1.9%. Output from mines slid to a 19-month low growth of 1.2%, while manufacturing growth picked up from 4.9% in February to 5.2%, still marking a five month-high. Electricity generation rose 8.6% but over a contraction (the fact of something becoming smaller or shorter) in March 2023. The National Statistical Office, which will release fresh GDP growth estimates for 2023-24 this month end, will thus factor in a 5.8% uptick in industrial output through FY2023-24, moderately higher than the 5.2% rise recorded in the previous year. Most of this annual increase came from mining, up 7.5%, while manufacturing saw a milder pick up to 5.5% from 4.7% in 2022-23 and electricity generation growth eased to 7.1%. Production growth was strongest for capital goods as well as infrastructure (the basic systems and services, such as transport and power supplies, that a country or organization uses in order to work effectively) and construction goods for the second straight year — not surprising given the ramp up in government infrastructure spends to pump prime the economy till private capex recovers.
However, for private investments to take over the economy’s growth engine, household consumption signals are critical and there is little comfort here for the second year in a row. Production of consumer durables and non-durables rose just 3.6% and 4%, respectively, on top of a meagre 0.6% and 0.7% uptick in 2022-23. This matches with the 3% growth estimated (roughly calculated or approximate) in private consumption (the situation in which information, entertainment, etc. is intended for a particular group of people) spends over last year, and their production this March was still below pre-COVID levels. Hopes of an above-normal monsoon may prop up rural demand dented by last year’s erratic rainfall, although tight credit conditions could impair urban consumption. As some economists have stressed, consumption recovery since the pandemic has been uneven, driven by demand for higher-end goods and services from upper-income households, while lower-income homes have turned reluctant (not willing to do something and therefore slow to do it) spenders even for fast-moving consumer goods. Job creation and real wage growth for those already employed are imperative (extremely important or urgent) for a broad-based demand recovery that triggers private capex. The concern here is that employment-intensive manufacturing segments such as apparel, computers and electronics, furniture and leather products, have contracted in 2023-24, with weaker exports only explaining part of this downturn. The latest IIP data also reflect flagging momentum (the quality that keeps an event developing or making progress after it has started) — growth slid to a three-quarter low of 4.9% between January and March. The next government must prioritise addressing the broader challenges haunting hesitant (If you are hesitant, you do not do something immediately or quickly because you are nervous or not certain) consumers and reviving platforms for reticent (unwilling to speak about your thoughts or feelings) investors to voice their concerns (to be important to someone or to involve someone directly) freely.
Start learning new words to improve your vocabulary. The Hindu Editorial Vocabulary 13th May consists of contextual meanings of difficult words.
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Difficult Words | Synonyms & Antonyms |
Contraction | Synonym: Deflation, Decrease Antonym: Enlargement, Increase |
Infrastructure | Synonym: Framework, Base Antonym: Disorganization |
Estimated | Synonym: Predicted, Approximated Antonym: Accurate, Clear |
Consumption | Synonym: Expenditure, Utilization Antonym: Building, Construction |
Reluctant | Synonym: Averse, Afraid Antonym: Bold, Careless |
Imperative | Synonym: Compulsory, Critical Antonym: Inessential, Insignificant |
Momentum | Synonym: Energy, Power Antonym: Lethargy, Weakness |
Hesitant | Synonym: Averse, Afraid Antonym: Bold, Brave |
Reticent | Synonym: Bashful, Hesitant Antonym: Confident, Extroverted |
Concern | Synonym: Care, Concernment Antonym: Calmness, Disregard |
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